Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,161$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(266 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,103.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $86$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(6.45 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $386$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,207$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,379.2}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,379.2\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,823$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,813.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,813.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,284$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $217,185$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,925.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,201$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,529.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,529.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $87,961$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,283,929$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(8.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,563.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,563.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $77,180$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,889.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,007,756$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $212,629$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,387.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,387.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,316$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,498.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $180,316$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,265$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,711.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,711.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,175$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,280.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,280.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,119$ on 2020-05-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $170,588$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,267.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(164,267.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,510$ on 2020-05-08
Best fit exponential: \(677 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,568.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,568.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,378$ on 2020-05-08