Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,161$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(266 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,103.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.45 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $386$ on 2020-05-08

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,207$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,379.2}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,379.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,823$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,813.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,813.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,284$ on 2020-05-08

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $217,185$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,925.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(212,925.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,201$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,529.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,529.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $87,961$ on 2020-05-08

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,283,929$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,563.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,563.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $77,180$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(79,889.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,007,756$ on 2020-05-08

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $212,629$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,387.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,387.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,316$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,498.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180,316$ on 2020-05-08

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,265$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,711.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,711.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,175$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,280.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,280.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,119$ on 2020-05-08

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $170,588$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,267.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(164,267.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,510$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(677 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,568.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,568.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,378$ on 2020-05-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 91%
New Zealand recovered 89%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Austria recovered 86%
Australia recovered 86%
Switzerland recovered 84%
Malta recovered 82%
Germany recovered 71%
Niger recovered 70%
Croatia recovered 69%
Andorra recovered 67%
Djibouti recovered 63%
Uzbekistan recovered 60%
North Macedonia recovered 59%
Tunisia recovered 57%
Denmark recovered 54%
Israel recovered 49%
Slovakia recovered 49%
Costa Rica recovered 46%
Uruguay recovered 45%
Turkey recovered 44%
Lithuania recovered 41%
Malaysia recovered 40%
Czechia recovered 37%
Spain recovered 36%
Cuba recovered 31%
Italy recovered 19%
Japan recovered 17%
Georgia recovered 11%
Morocco recovered 3%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,976$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(100.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,408.7}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,408.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,367.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,367.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $346$ on 2020-05-08

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(386 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-05-08

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,871$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(678 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,717.7}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,717.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(16.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(96.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $245$ on 2020-05-08

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,492$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(300 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,469.0}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,469.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.9}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 20.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-08